Macron is preparing to announce the next head of government. Lecornu or Bayrou are likely names, Gérald Darmanin less so: “I know from a reliable source that he doesn’t want to risk damaging his reputation”
“We are capable of great things… we can do the impossible,” the President said in an address broadcast on state television, promising to announce who France’s next prime minister will be within the coming days. The task, experts say, is Herculean at best.
“The problem right now is that a lot is happening and the choices Macron is dealing with are the same, and carry the same problems, as they did last summer,” Julien Hoez, editor of The French Dispatch and geopolitics specialist, tells CNN, referring to the negotiations that took place in the aftermath of the snap legislative elections Macron called for July, following a heavy defeat in the European elections the month before.
With the National Assembly split into three major blocs, with no party holding a majority, weeks passed between that election and the appointment of technocrat Barnier as prime minister. And 90 days later, the former EU Brexit negotiator became the shortest-serving head of government in French history.
The severe political crisis France is currently going through is full of small records set for all the wrong reasons. A government hadn’t fallen in France at the hands of its MPs since 1962, when Georges Pompidou faced a no-confidence motion similar to the one that brought down Barnier this week. And it’s the first time in 45 years that the country will reach the end of the year without an approved state budget for the following one, something Macron is still trying to avoid.
“Let’s be honest: this is a very, very complicated situation,” Julien Hoez stresses. “Technically, Barnier remains in office until a new prime minister is appointed, and what happens now is that Parliament will have to try to pass a budget or carry this year’s over into next year.”
This Friday, among Macron’s meetings with representatives of various parties at the Élysée Palace was one with Olivier Faure, leader of the Socialist Party (PS), who says he is prepared to reach a compromise with the centrist President. “I’m prepared to discuss every topic and see what’s possible on a short-term basis,” Faure told French radio. “We have to find a solution because we can’t let the country be left hanging for months.”
On the left, the names that stand out are former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, former President François Hollande, and Lucie Castets, the figure the NFP, including Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed (LFI, far left), wanted as head of government a few months ago. But none will be looked on favourably by centrists or the right.
“Yes, the Socialists are negotiating, but the problem is they want a left-wing prime minister, and, for example, the interior minister has already said he won’t accept a left-wing prime minister,” says Julien Hoez. “Basically everyone is playing the game of putting up barriers to try to keep control of the situation, and that means we’ll probably end up with someone from Macron’s own camp.”
With a return to a centrist prime minister now the more likely outcome, which names have the greatest chance of success? Hoez starts by mentioning François Bayrou, a veteran centrist from the MoDem party, part of Macron’s alliance since 2017, “who would have some ability to appeal to part of the PS” to avoid facing a fresh no-confidence motion in parliament, and who also isn’t seen by Le Pen’s far right as the worst option.
Even so, the French analyst adds, Defence Minister “Sébastien Lecornu is potentially the best choice because he holds a relatively powerful position and has a strong reputation, the catch being that he’s seen as one of Macron’s most loyal allies,” which could cause problems in a Parliament as fragmented as the current one.
With the fall of the Barnier government, the President is once again under enormous pressure to resign, something he reiterated this week he will not do, and something Hoez says is very unlikely to happen, regardless of the next episodes in this political saga in France.
“He has no reason to resign and would have nothing to gain from it. He’s the President, he was elected for a second term, and resigning would be handing the keys to the asylum over to the inmates, they’d start fighting each other and feel like they can do whatever they want.”
Macron stays until 2027, but the rest of his term will certainly remain mired in crises. And at a time of enormous geopolitical tension, with Donald Trump a month away from taking office as US President, none of this bodes well for France, or for Europe. “People are calling for accountability from French politicians given all this uncertainty, because the world is unstable and it’s only going to get more unstable. We can’t keep having a situation where two extremist parties hold a country hostage because their leaders want to become President.”
For now, France is set to remain hostage to these political struggles, and whoever takes the reins of government in the immediate term isn’t expected to stay in the role for long. “Basically there’s every chance the next government could also fail,” Julien Hoez notes, this at a time when the French Constitution prevents elections being held within 12 months of the last one. “My prediction is that we’ll see one or two more governments before Macron has to dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections for July.”