Macron has at least one reason to be optimistic: the Germans are finally waking up, and the UK is already following. “We’re heading in the right direction”
This was the moment that made the most headlines around the world in the aftermath of a meeting between the American and French presidents in Washington DC on Monday, the day marking three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
At a White House press conference, and to his host’s displeasure, Emmanuel Macron interrupted Donald Trump to correct him on the European Union’s (EU) financial support for Kyiv. That, however, seemed to be a minor setback in an otherwise apparently pleasant day, full of smiles and compliments, with Macron repeatedly referring to “dear Donald” and Trump remarking on how “Emmanuel is a very special person.”
“Macron and Trump have a very interesting relationship, and there was even a jovial atmosphere,” Julien Hoez, geopolitics specialist and editor of The French Dispatch, tells CNN Portugal. “The problem is you never know whether Trump is foolish enough to believe what he’s saying, or whether an advisor tells him things and he simply doesn’t know any better.”
The truth, Hoez continues, “is that Trump seemed not to care” about Macron’s correction, and simply repeated what he’d said in the first place. And even with all the analysis of “cautious optimism” following the meeting, particularly regarding Ukraine, “the truth is also that we still don’t know what they discussed before that press conference, and that’s what matters,” the French analyst believes. “I’ll be more optimistic once I see the readout from that meeting.”
“You really can’t trust what Russia says, especially when it comes to the war in Ukraine,” argues Julien Hoez, who considers it “entirely possible” that we could see European troops in the partially occupied country. “Europe is ahead of the US in terms of total support for Ukraine — €132 billion, plus the additional €3.5 billion just announced, against $114 billion from the Americans. This will depend a great deal on whether the EU’s main member states say ‘whatever it takes, we’re putting our forces in Ukraine.’ Europe can do it if it really wants to, it’s just a question of whether European leaders are ready for that.”
For now, only France and the UK have been assertive in showing willingness to do so, “which doesn’t help a lot of people,” Hoez acknowledges. “But if it happens, what will end up happening is that Russia will have to put up with it and deal with it — Russia isn’t suicidal enough to declare war on the whole of Europe. The big question is how we can do this while the Americans are backing Russia.”
At first glance, and without knowing for certain everything Trump and Macron discussed behind closed doors, Julien Hoez considers “one of the most important things” to come out of this meeting to be something not directly related to the ongoing war in eastern Europe.
“Macron apparently made a point of saying there’s nothing to be gained from a trade war between the US and the EU, not just because everyone will lose out [economically], but also because, if there’s a trade war, Europe won’t have the money to increase defence spending the way Trump is demanding,” the French analyst notes. “It’s a snake eating its own tail. It’s possible Macron managed to lay the groundwork to avoid this trade war, but nobody knows for certain yet.”
The developments of recent days, at the frantic pace that has characterised geopolitics since Trump’s return to the White House, aren’t confined to Washington. On the eve of Macron’s visit to the US, and after initial exit poll projections confirmed Friedrich Merz’s victory in Germany’s snap federal election, the incoming German chancellor delivered a tough and practically unprecedented speech from Berlin, in which he all but signed NATO’s death certificate and championed the EU’s “independence” from Trump’s America.
“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the US,” the conservative leader said on Sunday evening. “I never thought I’d have to say something like this on a television programme, but after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear that the Americans, or at least this part of America, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
“The problem with Merz’s situation is that a lot depends on things outside his control, including figuring out who will lead the SPD after Scholz and what will happen if the Greens or Die Linke are involved in coalition negotiations,” Julien Hoez notes, though he still points to “good signs,” such as the fact that “Scholz is on his way out and the FDP, which never let anything get done, has ceased to exist” in the German parliament.
“Once again, we’re moving in the right direction,” the specialist admits. “Some colleagues have been joking that the Germans are possessed by the spirit of Charles de Gaulle. It’s good that they’re taking this seriously, it’s good that we’re starting to hear the language that [we French] have been using for a decade now coming out of a German chancellor’s mouth, when he says we can’t trust the Americans. The Germans are finally waking up.”
With this and other unknowns fully occupying Western leaders (Trump excepted), Macron has been the leading figure hunting for potential answers in the form of a coalition of countries outside the EU and the Atlantic alliance, who met in Paris last week. As he explained on his way to Washington, the French president consulted the leaders of 30 countries, some EU member states and allies that hold that status, such as Canada and the UK, to gauge their willingness to keep supporting Ukraine at this stage.
“This isn’t a coalition meant to replace the EU, it’s more of a military arrangement in the style of NATO, but one where the pro-Russia elements of the bloc, who are always disrupting everything within the EU, are excluded,” Hoez notes, in an indirect reference to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and others aligned with it. “But there are so many open questions here too: will it replace NATO? Will Canada join the EU? Who knows at this point? What matters is that leaders are at the table, trying to work out how to support Ukraine and how to handle Trump, Putin, and all this chaos. If Macron really does have reasons to be optimistic, there’s a chance Trump might tone down his aggressive rhetoric on European Defence.”
Tomorrow, it’s British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s turn to visit Washington for high-level meetings with the Trump administration, including with the president himself. In anticipation of that meeting, London announced this week the largest increase in defence spending since the Cold War, rising to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 (half of what the US is currently demanding from Europeans).
“I really hope they manage it, it’s a 2.5% of GDP increase, an extra £4 billion a year, not counting spending on intelligence services,” Julien Hoez responds when asked about the news. “Overall, we’re all moving in the right direction, and there’s a new alliance being built outside of NATO. It’s wait and see.”