When the Paris Court of Appeal decided this week to reduce Marine Le Pen’s sentence for embezzlement and misuse of European funds, reopening a path to the French presidency that had been thought to be closed, the leadership of the National Rally (RN) met immediately to decide what to do. Even before the announcement that she – and not her former protégé turned RN president, Jordan Bardella – would be the candidate for next year’s elections, French political expert Julien Hoez told CNN Portugal that the main objective would be to avoid a schism within the far-right party.
Over the past few months, and despite a glimmer of hope that Le Pen’s sentence might be quashed or reduced, Bardella had been preparing to be the RN’s presidential candidate. But following the verdict, that hope was dashed, in what Hoez believes was a decision motivated by the fact that, at 30 years of age and with no prior professional experience, Bardella is far less experienced than his mentor.
With around 10 months to go until the elections, the big question is precisely how the electorate will view Le Pen’s conviction and decide who to vote for in the first round and then on 2 May, the date of the second and final round. “Advertisements are already appearing here in France attacking her for embezzling millions, and we will continue to see this over the next nine or ten months,” points out Julien Hoez. “But the big question will be how many independent voters will swing in her direction”
With around 10 months to go until the elections, the big question is precisely how the electorate will view Le Pen’s conviction and decide who to vote for in the first round and then on 2 May, the date of the second and final round. “Advertisements are already appearing here in France attacking her for embezzling millions, and we will continue to see this over the next nine or ten months,” points out Julien Hoez. “But the big question will be how many independent voters will swing in her favour or against her in a second round” – at a time when most polls take it for granted that Le Pen will reach that stage.
For the candidate, as for the other members of the RN, the case brought against her and the other ongoing investigations targeting the far-right party are nothing more than political persecution – a theory that finds support among voters inclined to vote for them. “The polls show that these issues have no impact whatsoever on voter support and that they may even be seen as proof of persecution by the system,” argues Eric Maurice, a view that Hoez endorses.
The Mélenchon issue
With other members of the RN under investigation by the French courts and the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, including Jordan Bardella, questions remain as to how the progress of these cases may or may not influence the electorate’s preferences. But for Hoez, “unless one of these more recent cases yields anything more concrete than mere allegations, searches and seizures, it is unlikely that the figures will change significantly before April” – not least because “RN voters have shown over several election cycles that they are not bothered by legal proceedings, which they view as political theatre designed to destroy their candidates”.
For the analyst, “the real question is whether these situations would be enough to immediately dissuade a centrist voter from voting for the far right”. And given that a second round seems certain, whether Le Pen or Bardella is the RN’s ultimate presidential candidate, the question is who will contest the second round against the party, adds Eric Maurice.
Left-wing primaries, “a mess”
It is precisely in an attempt to mobilise the electorate that, weeks after the Senate elections at the end of September, there will be primaries on the French left, scheduled for 11 October and already mired in chaos.
“This whole idea of left-wing primaries is a mess,” says Julien Hoez. “The PS wanted everyone, except Mélenchon, to take part, but Mélenchon wants to take part because he thinks he’ll win, and the other parties – apart from the PS – only want to take part if Mélenchon is there, because they stand to gain a great deal from his presence – and the most popular left-wing politician in France at the moment is François Hollande. Why? Nobody knows.”
The point, adds the editor of The French Dispatch, is that it seems increasingly clear that it will be the centre and the right that dominate the campaign against the RN, regardless of which left-wing candidates emerge alongside Mélenchon.
“The reality is that it won’t really be the left leading the debate or anything of the sort; it will mainly be the centre and the far right. But the truth is also that we still have nine months of campaigning ahead of us. Last time [in 2022], Mélenchon came out of nowhere at the last minute and secured 18 or 19 per cent of the vote. In the previous elections [in 2017], François Fillon found himself embroiled in a corruption scandal and it was Macron who went through to the second round. Anything can happen at any time between now and the elections.”
And whilst the candidates have yet to emerge and the official campaign has not got under way, the announcement that Marine Le Pen intends to run for president again is causing concern at the heart of the EU – an institution that the former RN leader describes as a “shapeless mass that devours everything” and whose executive she wants to abolish, having suggested withdrawing France from the bloc and the single currency.
In an article published yesterday, Politico quoted several officials in Brussels as saying that, all things considered, should a far-right victory in the French presidential election be confirmed, they would prefer to deal with a more pragmatic Bardella than with a Le Pen, who tends to be more ideological. But Julien Hoez does not share this view.
“I don’t think that’s the case; she remains pragmatic and knows she can’t just go round destroying everything around her – she realises she wouldn’t benefit from that,” says Hoez. “Theoretically, she could do it, but I don’t think she will. She’ll veto certain things in the European Council; she’ll do what’s expected of her, but I think she’ll start behaving more like Giorgia Meloni – that is, she’ll be more aggressive on the international stage, perhaps less pro-Ukraine than Meloni, more pro-Russia and more anti-EU than Meloni, with domestic policies more similar to those of the Italian prime minister. As for the domestic situation, things will be bad, and there will be people in the international community who will try to downplay her actions at home.”
The death of the EU?
There are those who are not quite so optimistic about the stance a President Le Pen might take within the EU, such as Željana Zovko, a Croatian MEP and vice-president of the European People’s Party (EPP), who believes Bardella would be more moderate than his mentor – and for whom a National Rally victory in the French presidential election could mark “the end of the European project as we know it”. But Julien Hoez also has his reservations on this point.
“People should have more confidence in the European structure,” says the expert, noting that the same fears were held regarding Hungary’s now former prime minister and that this ultimately did not come to pass, despite the obstacles he created. “Viktor Orbán did not destroy the EU during his 20 years in power – besides, we also need to see what happens in the parliamentary elections in France.”
Having served two consecutive presidential terms, Emmanuel Macron cannot stand as a candidate in next year’s elections, but he has the power to dissolve the National Assembly before handing over the reins to his successor, which means there could be parliamentary elections as early as June. Julien Hoez believes that, “if the RN wins the presidency, there will be a backlash in the subsequent general election – and a minority government could prove more problematic, with this cohabitation meaning that Le Pen could be ousted at any moment”.
On top of that, there will then be European elections in 2029, which could also spell bad news for an anti-EU far right in the French presidency, following its historic victory in the 2024 European elections. “The reason why many people vote for the RN is linked to dissatisfaction with domestic politics, but if the RN is in power, will people still vote for the RN in the European elections? My prediction is that there will be damage to the EU, but not the destruction of the EU.”