Early on Tuesday afternoon, the judge responsible for reviewing her appeal will decide whether to uphold or overturn the sentence; if it is upheld, Le Pen will be barred from holding public office for five years. And analysts stress that the most likely outcome is that the sentence will stand. “At this stage, an acquittal is extremely unlikely,” Julien Hoez, editor of The French Dispatch, tells CNN. “The defence argued that the assistants were unaware of the [EU] rules, but the prosecution clearly demonstrated that Le Pen fully understood the European Parliament’s regulations.”
As the case became increasingly difficult to defend in court, Le Pen’s team adjusted their ambitions, now aiming for a reduction in the period of ineligibility to two years or less – something Hoez considers “possible, but still unlikely”. At present, the former presidential candidate has already served 15 months of her ineligibility period since her conviction at first instance on 31 March 2025, meaning that a two-year sentence would make her eligible again on 31 March 2027 – just a few weeks before the first round of the next presidential election, which is scheduled for 18 April.
“RN argues that this is feasible, citing the precedent set by the Council of State in local elections, which assessed eligibility in relation to polling day,” explains Julien Hoez. “However, as Le Pen is accused of having led the scheme, rather than playing a peripheral role, and as prosecutors have already reduced their initial request for a potential sentence from 10 to five years, it remains unlikely” that the judge will reduce the sentence.
“The polls suggest that the RN’s transition to Bardella is not waiting for the elections,” points out Julien Hoez. “The June Odoxa poll already places him ahead of her in terms of popularity for the first time, and three-quarters of French voters, including RN supporters, do not believe that her ineligibility will harm the party in any way. At the moment, everyone is preparing to compete against Bardella, not Le Pen, because her defence was a disaster. To be perfectly honest, barring a miracle, Marine Le Pen’s career is doomed to failure.”
And what about Bardella – what does the future hold for him after this Tuesday? Julien Hoez points to several factors. “My view is that, unless one of these more recent cases yields something more concrete than police raids and allegations, it is unlikely that the figures will change significantly before April next year – and even then, even if Bardella himself were directly hit by a serious corruption allegation, rather than just his inner circle, his electorate might not even care and simply see this as the ‘deep state’ trying to prevent his victory,” the analyst points out. “The real question is whether these situations would be enough to immediately deter centrist voters from potentially voting for the far right.”
Added to this, according to Hoez, is another fact – namely that, historically, opinion polls conducted a year in advance have only proved accurate in around half of cases, a caveat that Gaël Sliman of Odoxa had already pointed out recently. “The 2022 presidential elections are a classic example of why we must exercise caution,” says the editor of The French Dispatch, noting that “the LFI underestimated voting intentions by more than double, whilst the RN overestimated them”.
With polls predicting Bardella’s likely victory over any political rival in the second round, scheduled for 2 May, it is worth putting the figures into perspective, says Julien Hoez. “It is not too early to describe Bardella as the man to beat, but it is too early to treat any isolated figure from the second round as a prediction rather than a snapshot of the moment. We must continue to remind people that polls are merely snapshots of opinions at a specific moment.”
“For Bardella, as for Le Pen, a place in the second round seems assured; the question is whether they will be able to mobilise more than 50 per cent of voters in that second round,” adds Eric Maurice. “It is too early to make predictions, but the key factor is probably not so much Bardella’s ability to secure a majority, but rather the ability of the other candidates to mobilise voters.”