It took 15 minutes to discuss support for Ukraine and more than 10 hours to debate how to “Rearm Europe.” In the end, 26 backed Ukraine and 27 backed further investment in Defence. With the special European Council over, important meetings in Paris and Riyadh are on the horizon
It was a special summit, specifically convened after Donald Trump suspended military support for Ukraine in the aftermath of a disastrous meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last week. But was it “the turning point” from which “everything changed,” as Donald Tusk declared on his way into Thursday’s meeting?
The summit ended after several hours with Viktor Orbán’s Hungary on one side of the room and the remaining 26 European Union countries on the other — at least when it came to the declaration of unquestionable support for Ukraine, which includes the renewed intention to have the country as the 28th member state by 2030 and to guarantee it an additional loan of €30 billion throughout 2025, paid for with the interest from Russian funds frozen in Europe since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“The problem with Viktor Orbán is that he has really only managed to isolate himself at this European Council, highlighting how problematic it is to have Hungary effectively acting as a foreign agent within the EU,” Julien Hoez, geopolitics specialist and editor of The French Dispatch, tells CNN Portugal.
Is this yet another attempt by Trump to subordinate Ukraine to his own interests, particularly to close his long-sought deal on exploiting rare minerals in the war-torn country? “Of course,” the analyst answers, not least because “there are growing signs that Trump simply wants to get out of Ukraine at any cost, even if that means the total destruction of Ukraine, which would strengthen Russia’s hand and lead to renewed conflict in the years following any ‘end’ to the war,” which could involve a fresh invasion and the likely loss of access to the minerals Trump wants.
Even so, Hoez points to some encouraging signs. “Although Zelensky won’t be taking part in these meetings, that doesn’t mean he won’t benefit from them in some way. We’ll need to watch the fallout closely, especially given Trump’s softer tone since the catastrophic ambush of the Ukrainian president at the White House.”
If there were still any doubts about how little Trump’s US seems to care about Ukraine and the EU, it’s worth remembering that the same Marco Rubio who met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, a few days ago, refused to meet with Kaja Kallas when the bloc’s top diplomat travelled to Washington this week.
“The question isn’t whether Orbán has a negative effect on the EU’s attempts to present a united front, especially since we’ve seen Macron working around the pro-Russian blockage,” Julien Hoez notes. “The question is how the EU neutralises Hungary as a herald of our own destruction.”
And if Hungary is one thorn in the EU’s side, the other, obviously, is Russia. Committed to putting troops in Ukraine, the UK and France say there are 20 European countries open to contributing to this peacekeeping force, to be deployed as part of a potential ceasefire or peace agreement with Russia whose shape remains impossible to predict. But that remains a very distant scenario, the specialist notes.
“Under the plan currently being developed, European troops would be on the ground after an initial ceasefire, something that is extremely unlikely to succeed given Putin’s track record.”
While decisions remain unsettled, London is drawing up a plan to create a European air force of 120 fighter jets, already named Sky Shield, to be deployed to patrol the skies over Kyiv and western Ukraine, protecting the country from Russian attacks “without necessarily provoking a wider conflict with Moscow.”
Drawn up by military experts, and with the potential to “have a greater military, political and socioeconomic impact than 10,000 ground troops,” the British military’s plan was revealed on the morning of the extraordinary European Council — and drew an immediate reaction from the Kremlin.
“With Macron meeting the ‘coalition of the willing’ in the coming days, and with Turkey stressing its interest in getting involved, it looks like we could put together a sizeable deterrent force capable of securing some form of peace if deployed on the ground,” Hoez notes — “which is another reason why Russia refuses to let that happen.”