As the face of the Rassemblement National, Le Pen has just been sentenced to four years in prison, two of which are to be served under house arrest, and is barred from standing for public office, including the presidency, in the 2027 elections
When the day came, a Paris court followed the prosecutors’ recommendations and, this morning, found Marine Le Pen guilty, along with eight other French politicians. The sentence takes effect immediately: four years’ imprisonment, two of which are to be served under house arrest, and a five-year ban on standing for public office, which prevents her from standing in the 2027 presidential election. Under the same sentence, she may remain as vice-president of the RN, but will have to step down from that post if there are parliamentary elections before 2030.
“This could spell the end of Le Pen’s political career,” French analyst Julien Hoez, editor of The French Dispatch, told CNN. “It also means that the RN’s likely presidential candidate will be Jordan Bardella, who is seen as too inexperienced to be a strong candidate, and who will struggle to match the levels of support that Le Pen has managed to garner.”
‘Bardella left to his own devices’
With six months to go before his 30th birthday, Jordan Bardella is the figure set to take centre stage following Marine Le Pen’s departure from the political scene – a young man whom the RN leader has kept under her wing as part of a strategy to appeal to the younger electorate, but who “does not appear to be as competent” as his mentor, the analyst notes.
“Bardella benefits from being in Le Pen’s shadow, and with her departure he is left to his own devices,” says Julien Hoez. “We are likely to see him struggle, having lost a series of debates ahead of the 2024 European elections and other internal debates; it is possible that he could perform just as poorly in the presidential debates as Le Pen did in 2017, when she suffered a political collapse.”
Asked whether this scenario could change in two years, by the time of the presidential election, Hoez says it is unlikely that another figure will emerge capable of uniting the RN electorate in the way Marine Le Pen has, whose only chance of standing in 2027 is for her potential appeal to be upheld. “Some people would like to see Florian Philippot rise to that role, but [the RN’s former deputy leader] is also very unpopular and was sidelined long ago, so he would have an uphill battle ahead of him,” the analyst says.
“Le Pen is the reason people vote RN”
As soon as the verdict was read, shortly after Hoez told CNN that this conviction would likely “reinforce conspiracy theorists, who will complain about the deep state,” the first reactions from outside France began to emerge.
While Le Pen has not broken her silence on a potential appeal against the sentence, her conviction marks, above all, a huge setback for the far right in France.
“Even though many people see her as toxic in terms of her political views, Marine Le Pen is the reason people vote for the RN, because she is an apparently likeable and competent figure,” Hoez says. And that reason, for now at least, has just vanished from the scene.