“It’s a mess, now that France is trying to work out how to finance this massive increase in military spending – and at a time when the country is expected to take on a leading role in the EU and set an example,” Julien Hoez, a geopolitical expert and director of The French Dispatch, tells CNN Portugal.
Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows a government to pass laws without the backing of a parliamentary majority – a sort of back door which, once opened, also opens up the possibility for parties to bring motions of no confidence against the executive. “Honestly, it’s tricky [to avoid it]; even if [Bayrou] keeps all the centrist parties on his side, he is likely to face a motion of no confidence,” says Julien Hoez – and the current balance of seats in the National Assembly does not favour him.
“One of the only ways he can survive is by keeping the vast majority of the Socialist Party on his side, as it was they who tabled the current motion of no confidence,” adds the French analyst – a scenario which, as Coquerel told Politico yesterday, is highly unlikely, given the proximity of the 2026 local elections and the legislative and presidential elections scheduled for the following year. “If the PS decides to save ‘Macronism’, I think it will suffer an absolutely devastating electoral setback,” predicts the far-left MP.
As for the RN, the situation is even more delicate. Following Marine Le Pen’s conviction at the end of March for misappropriation of European funds, the leading figure of the French far right is barred from standing for public office, which means that, should the government fall and early general elections be held, she will be unable to stand as a candidate for the RN or remain as the party’s vice-president.
“The only other way for [this government] to survive is if the RN decides it is not worth losing Marine Le Pen in order to get rid of Bayrou and increase the number of seats,” says Hoez, “but the RN may decide to take the difficult decision [to support the motion of no confidence] in the hope that Marine Le Pen achieves the unthinkable – that is, winning her legal appeal – which is highly unlikely.”
Ultimately, Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party may “decide that the increase in seats is indeed worth it”, even if it means “losing Le Pen”. Not least because she could “do what Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been doing” in La France Insoumise, Hoez points out: in other words, “stay in the background whilst leading the party as one of – or as – its main public face”.