No candidate for the post of prime minister appears popular enough to avert early general elections in France, an analyst told CNN Portugal. According to the polls, the most popular figure at the moment is Jordan Bardella, leader of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, who has once again called on Macron to resign. The president, for his part, remains steadfast in the face of pressure even from the centrists, who say the time has come to pave the way for new presidential elections.
Amidst all the uncertainty about what will happen in France in the coming days and weeks, one thing is certain: “Trust in politicians is at an all-time low.” This analysis comes from Julien Hoez, editor of The French Dispatch, speaking to CNN Portugal from Paris. The interview took place in two parts: the first before a scheduled television appearance by Sébastien Lecornu, the outgoing prime minister who stepped down on Monday, 14 hours after presenting his government; the second after his address to the nation.
‘What I think is likely to happen is that they will manage to pass the State Budget and then we will have early parliamentary elections, possibly as early as November,’ Hoez said on Wednesday. And on Thursday, after Lecornu addressed the nation: “He said there was an agreement, or that he thought there was a possibility of an agreement on a new prime minister. The problem is that, straight afterwards, the PS came out and said no, that is not the case. In other words, the situation has become even more confusing.”
Amid the confusion, Emmanuel Macron’s office issued a statement in line with what Lecornu, France’s fifth prime minister in three years, had said. “The majority of MPs are opposed to the dissolution [of parliament], there is a basis for stability, and it is possible to adopt a budget by 31 December. On this basis, the President of the Republic will appoint a prime minister within the next 48 hours.”
Who, then, could be eligible for a post that seems increasingly cursed? The answer only serves to deepen the chaos further. According to the latest polls, compiled in a chart by The French Dispatch, there is not a single candidate popular enough to avoid a snap general election – something Macron has managed to avoid since he brought them forward to 2024, in the wake of his party’s crushing defeat in the European elections in June of that year.
The frontrunner is Jordan Bardella, the current leader of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), of whom around 39 per cent of respondents say they have a very positive or somewhat positive impression. But as the face of the French far right, it is impossible for Macron to appoint him as prime minister. “I will vote against everything,” Le Pen promised after Lecornu’s speech, accusing political leaders of “mounting their horses not to go anywhere, but to take part in a rodeo”. The three-time presidential candidate also reiterated her demand that Macron resign and pave the way for a presidential election before 2027.
“Everyone blames him for the current situation, but that doesn’t matter to Macron,” says Julien Hoez. “Gabriel Attal appeared on television saying that he no longer understands the president’s decisions, which is a very significant comment given that he leads the president’s party. But Macron isn’t going to resign; he’s not the sort of person who gives up, no matter how much pressure there may be – he likes to fight to the end.”
“All this makes us look really dumb as a country,” laments Hoez. “The French are complaining more and more about their political class – and because of this, France has been unable to contribute to the EU for many years, particularly in the area of defence, which is its main strength.”
Following what has been said over the last few days, Hoez, like other analysts, does not believe in a miracle. “The most popular centrist of them all, Édouard Philippe, told Macron to resign, so it won’t be him. Attal said he doesn’t understand Macron, so he’s out of the running too, and [Macron] can’t move any further to the right, so Gérald Darmanin is also out of the picture,” the analyst suggests, emphasising that any immediate solution will be temporary.
“Perhaps Raphaël Glucksmann?”, asks Hoez, referring to the MEP who founded the centre-left party Place Publique in 2018. “The thing is, Glucksmann isn’t suicidal… That’s just how it is. We’ll have to wait and see who is appointed, where they’ll come from, and what the reactions will be – but I don’t think anything has changed at all. The problems remain, and, frankly, it all seems like a desperate move, which I don’t think will lead to anything concrete. It’s time for Macron, Lecornu and the centrists to decide what they want to do.”