The former leader of the French far-right party (RN), Marine Le Pen, was sentenced on Tuesday to 45 months’ disqualification from holding public office – 30 of which were suspended – and to three years’ imprisonment, two of which were suspended and one to be served with an electronic tag.
The verdict had been eagerly awaited, given its potential to shape the future of Le Pen’s political career; she is the face of the French far right and has stood as a presidential candidate three times in the past. “It seems the court wanted to allow her to stand as a candidate, perhaps fearing problems regarding how the sentence would be perceived,” Julien Hoez, an expert in French politics and editor of The French Dispatch, explained to CNN Portugal.
A television interview with Le Pen on TF1 is scheduled for 8.00 pm local time (7.00 pm in Lisbon), during which she is expected to announce her decision.
“Basically, she can stand as a candidate, but it’s a complicated situation and within the party they have been discussing all the possibilities for months, whilst also preparing Bardella to be the candidate,” explains Julien Hoez.
At the time, Le Pen was banned, with immediate effect, from holding public office for five years, which prevented her from going ahead with her planned fourth bid for the Élysée. In total, she has already served 15 months of her ineligibility for public office; given that the period of ineligibility was reduced from 60 to 45 months, and that 30 of those months are suspended, this means she is now eligible to stand for public office again.
However, her new prison sentence – one year’s actual imprisonment with electronic tagging – could prove almost as damaging as the ban.
“The big problem at the moment is that they don’t want a schism within the party,” says Julien Hoez regarding the meeting taking place this afternoon at the RN’s headquarters in Paris. “I think she wants to be the presidential candidate, because this is effectively her last chance to stand, but Bardella has been gaining ground; he says he’s a team player, but he’s been behaving like the de facto candidate.”
Alongside this, the expert adds, “it’s important to realise that a third of [the party’s] supporters trust her and do not necessarily want Bardella to be the candidate; it’s a complex situation.”
At this afternoon’s meeting, Le Pen, Bardella and the rest of the RN leadership “have to decide who to back, to work out whether she is serious about not standing as a candidate because of the electronic tag, and there are also calculations to be made regarding the other parties – whether it is better for them to run against her, who is more experienced, or against Bardella, who is a weaker candidate and is still under investigation – it’s all rather confusing”.